The natural course of spontaneous miscarriage: analysis of signs and symptoms in 188 expectantly managed women.

BACKGROUND Expectant management is an alternative for curettage in women with a miscarriage. AIM To assess the pattern of vaginal bleeding and pain in expectantly managed women with a miscarriage, and to analyse the factors predictive of a relatively quick spontaneous loss of pregnancy. DESIGN OF STUDY Part of a study comparing expectant management with surgical evacuation. SETTING Two hospitals in Amsterdam. METHOD In expectantly managed women with a miscarriage, the pattern of vaginal bleeding and pain and the probability of a spontaneous loss of pregnancy was analysed. RESULTS Of the 188 expectantly managed women 95 (51%) experienced a spontaneous loss of their pregnancy. In women with bleeding at inclusion, 52% had a completed miscarriage loss, while of the women without bleeding but with a coincidentally diagnosed non-viable pregnancy during routine ultrasonographic examination, 46% had a completed miscarriage. In the multivariate analysis an increasing bleeding pattern at inclusion was predictive of a relatively quick spontaneous loss of pregnancy. The median daily levels of bleeding and pain were the most prominent during the first 8 days after the start of the bleeding and decreased thereafter. CONCLUSIONS Expectant management is effective in 51% of unselected women with a miscarriage. An increasing bleeding pattern is predictive of a relatively quick spontaneous loss of pregnancy in first-trimester miscarriages. The graphical representation of our findings can be used to inform women about the natural course of miscarriages and a well-informed treatment choice.